Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
To streamline our daily blogs and conserve space, we’ve organized key resources into a convenient, collapsible dropdown menu below. A sort of Quick Reference Handbook if you will — as our friends in aviation might call it. By clicking the menu below, you’ll have quick access to shortcuts for all of our Samwise Model Portfolios, the Current Market Outlook, Administrative Announcements, and our Notification Center. Simply click to enlarge the content for quick, easy access.
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The portfolios below are separated by launch dates. Each portfolio is entirely independent and has no bearing on any other model portfolio. We launch entirely new portfolios during each market correction as an illustrative tool for new subscribers who weren’t present during the previous buying opportunities in the market. To date, we’ve launched four portfolios during two separate corrections.
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Today’s Trades
None.
10:00 AM EST
Sam Weiss Maintenance Issues Could last a Week or So
We’re dealing with some unfortunate issues with our hosting provider at the moment which might impact a variety of different tools relatod te the site. We’re working on getting it resolved as soon as we can. Basically, our hosting decided to move all of their clients from
Here are a few things that might come up and how to address them.
(1) Comment Section – comment section could be limited for a bit. I’ve found some test accounts weren’t able to post comments to posts published AFTER Friday’s hosting issues came up. If you run into issues commenting on new posts, please post to comments to older posts, and I should be to see them. Not sure if this will be an issue at all. We did have to disable our normal commenting system for now.
(2) SW Mobile App will be down until the issues are resolve or until we migrate servers.
(3) Push Notifications – we’ve found a work around. We can send out push notifications and are working on making the notifications page load. But the rest of the app will be down for a bit. We’ll also be sending out text notifications as a back-up if push isn’t working.
If you run into login issues at all, please post a comment or us an e-mail.
Sorry for the inconvenience everyone. We’ll work on getting this resolved as quick as we can.
3:45 AM EST
NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) Likely to Rebound up to $615-$620 as Future are Deep in the Green
The futures are pointing toward a deep green open for trade on Monday. This is totally in-line with expectations given how oversold the QQQ became during this recent pull-back. In fact, as we pointed out on Friday, everything from breakout onward has played out exactly as expected. We forecasted a move up to the $630-$640 and we forecasted before the QQQ even made the run at all that we would see our largest segment pull-back of the rally as the QQQ fell from $630-$640 down to $605 a share. That was the forecast based on how the QQQ has dealt with this exact breakout at the $300, $400 and $500 level. And this time the QQQ peaked at $637 — just as it peaked at $538 last December — and then the QQQ proceeded to pull-back to $599 a share (just as it did last year when it bottomed near $505 a share).
The total pull-back stands at around 5.90% or 38-points from $637 down to $599. That’s a very significant pull-back and to rally back to $637 a share would require the QQQ to record a 6.37% segment. That’s just to return to the highs and form a double-top. Nevermind new highs.
For this reason, our expectation now is the QQQ is likely to top on this segment. In fact, we’re likely to see on of three things happen from here and all lead to correction in the end. We outline those scenarios below:
Scenario #1: QQQ is Already in Correction & Must Peak at $618 a Share
In scenario #1, the QQQ is already in a correction and what we’re seeing right is merely a rebound ahead of a second leg lower. We’d need to see the QQQ top no higher than the 50% retracement point between $599 and $637 opening up an equal second leg down. This would be a textbook 2-to-3 legged correction with 50% retirement rebound in-between each leg. In this case, that’s $618 a share. That’ the magic number. We really don’t want to see the QQQ trading above $618 or we’re not really in a correction. This was just a large segmented pull-back in this case.
In this 50% retracement rebound scenario, the QQQ would rebound to $618 a share and then proceed to drop another $38 from there in what would be the second leg down in a correction. That’s a straight line drop to $580 in the same manner the QQQ dropped from $637 to $599. We’d need to see the same basic leg down. So that’s one scenario outlined below:
Scenario #2: Double-Top, Incremental New highs or Three Push at $637
In Scenario #2, the pull-back ended this past Friday and now the QQQ is making its way toward its highs again. After a near 6% sell-off, we get the start of a new segment that leads to a double-top or maybe we get new highs that re incremental in nature or a straight three push-pattern. If we’re not already in a correction, I think this is the most likely scenario. It will be very difficult for the QQQ to make substantial new highs from here. Whatever the QQQ doe here, it’s going to look very weak on the chart from a momentum point of view because the QQQ (nor the SPY) will be able to produce substantial new highs to warrant continued buy side momentum. This always happens when a pull-back goes too far as this one has. The big pull-back is always the clue that we’re at a top. In a correction, it’s a big rebound that clues us in that the market has bottomed or that a bear market is ending. We showed this on Friday. Here’s how that might look like:
Scenario #3: QQQ Makes Moderate New Highs as it Limps into Year End
If the QQQ managed to rally 8% off of its $599 lows, it would reach $646 a share or produce 7-point incremental new highs. To make substantial new highs north of that would require a major segment. So I find it to be very unlikely that the QQQ will be able to make any sort of substantial new high. But that is one possible scenario. The QQQ could go on to rally in a 9-10% segment up to $653 to $660 a share. That’s a deep in the mid-century zone. If the QQQ managed to pull that of between now and the end of the month, we could see a segment pull-back to start December with a final rally into year end.
I don’t see this rally going past January even under those insane conditions as January you’re going to have new year profit taking. Generally speaking, people are going to want to sell their losers this year to off-set any capital gains and their deeply positive positions just beyond the new year to defer payment of taxes for 15-months. January is typically a brutal month after a major 2nd half rally from July to January. We’ve seen that happen on repeat.
To get there would take an extraordinary effort. We’d need to see a 10% segment here to keep forward momentum moving, a regular segment pull-back in early December with yet another segments. To make it to year end would require two more segments and a pull-back in-between. Considering the fact that we’re already at Day 143, I’d say this is an extremely unlikely scenario. We outline for investment planning purposes (below).
SW Portfolio Investment Strategy
Here’s what we’re doing from an investment standpoint and why. We’re outlining our strategy and reasoning ahead of time including our exit strategies.
First, we want to buy back half of the September 2026 $500 puts we sold this past Friday when the QQQ was trading at $600 a share. We ended up closing that position right near the lows of the session and at around $18.30 per contract and ideally, we want to buy those back near $620 a share on the QQQ. If we can buy them back for $15.30, that’s a huge positive swing. We’d be gaining $3.00 in cost-basis for about ½ position.
Considering the fact that we bought them at $14.71 and a $3.00 reduction reduces basis on the entire trade by $1.50 down to $13.21. That brings our average entry very much up to the highs for the QQQ.
Now that’s what we would do at $515-$520 a share. From there, if the QQQ continued higher into the $620’s to fill some key gaps, we would add incrementally as the QQQ climbed. Not in the Sep $500’s, but rather in the Sep $550’s. The goal would be to add in increments as the QQQ rises. We may buy up to 40 contracts into the $550’s and then close out the 40 contracts we’re long the $500’s on the next segmented pull-back.
So we might buy 20 contacts in the mid-$620’s, another 10 in the low $630’s and another 10 contracts near the highs for the QQQ. Whether we add from there will depend on the circumstances.
But the goal is for us to continuously move up our basis until the QQQ reaches a peak. Remember, we bought our FIRST position in the September $500’s when the QQQ was at $600 a share. Now our basis is closer to $630 a share. We bought our first position near $16.00 a contract, but then by adding as the QQQ had risen, and then subsequently reducing down at peak volatility, we’ve reduced that steadily over time. That mean buying as the QQQ rebounds off the lows and when it reaches peak extremes on the segment and selling when the QQQ has sustained a full segment pull-back at a minimum and/or once it has reached deeply oversold conditions.
We want to continue to do that until the QQQ eventually tops. We can use the segmented rally and overbought conditions on the hourly to help guide and inform those decisions.
Our exit strategy is to exit on correction. We want to sell part of it for profit and hold part of the position as a hedge for our future long position which will be a substantially larger investment. Ideally, we end up near the bottom of a correction with a roughly 20 contract position in the Sep $550 puts after having closed out 40 contracts in the Sep $500’s and another 20 in the $550’s for a big profit. That’s the optimal goal.
2:06 PM EST
Trade Watch: September $500 Puts at $14.20-$14.40 range
We’re looking to buy back the September $500 puts we sold on Friday. Really wish we had bought those calls, we’d be on a pretty much guaranteed win at that point. Just that one little difference in action and we’d be pretty much nearly guaranteed to win out on the entire correction trade. We’re talking with the spread and all. Because we’d have such a reduction in basis now.
With the QQQ up $23 we don’t really want to push our luck here. So I think we’re going to go ahead and buy back our puts very soon. We’ll add to in the $550 puts as the QQQ climbs. But we want back into our puts at a minimum here. So we’re looking to buy back in the $14.20 to $14.40 range. That gives us a huge $3.80 to $4.00 reduction. That saved us a full $7,600 -$8,000 in Arryn alone. That undid about 1/3 of the entire spread trade on just that one swing. So please stay tuned. We’re buying back our puts we sold this past Friday and plan to due so during this next hour of trading.
Trade Executed: Buy to Open QQQ Sep $500 Puts @ $14.35 x 20 Contracts
12.5% Portfolio Allocation
$28,700 Cost
None.
Trade Executed: Buy to Open QQQ Sep $500 Puts @ $14.35 x 18 Contracts
15.3% Portfolio Allocation
$25,830.00 Cost
None.
Trade Executed: Buy to Open QQQ Sep $500 Puts @ $14.35 x 10 Contracts
12.5% Portfolio Allocation
$14,350 Cost
None.
2:40 PM EST
NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) at 60-RSI on the Hourly & a Few Points form $627 gap resistance.
So the next obvious area of resistance for the QQQ — once it gets through the low $620’s — is to get back to its gap resistance at $627 a share. The QQQ recently sustained a gap-down from $632 to $627 a share and both sides of that gap (lower and upper gap-line) represent resistance points for the market — $627 and $632. We should also closely watch overbought hourly as it’s now near the 60-level. As the QQQ reaches overbought conditions, that should start to indicate where we’re likely to see another sharp sell-off.
The place we’ll probably want to add to our position is in the $627 area. We’ll probably buy a 10-contract position in the September 550 puts at that point. Then again at the top of the gap-line at $632. We’ll then bring that up to 40 as the QQQ moves from the low $630’s up to the $640’s if it’s able to do so at all.
As of right now, the segment pull-back went from $637.01 down to $598.67 for a total of 6.02% segmented rally pull-back. That’s a significant pull-back for sure. If the QQQ is on a new segment, that segment has thus far reached 4.07%. That’s also a fairly decent sized segment at this point relative to some of the other late stage segments we’ve seen. Just to give you an idea, the four most recent segments went for 8.14%, 4.19%, 7.87%, 5.73%, 9.74% and 6.17%. Those are all the early mid-to-late stage segments.
The 4.19% segment we saw in early October transpired over 12-days. This one is only 2-days long so far. If the QQQ matched some of these prior segments, at 8.14%, it reaches a peak at $647.40. At 4.19%, it’s peaking right here at $623 share. At 7.87%, it’s a 15-days rally up to $645.78. At 5.73%, it’s moving up to $633 a share. At 6.17% it’s going up to $635.61.
So as you can see, based on recent segments, even if this turns into a full blown segment, we’re likely to top out in the next 10-15 points of upside. We could see the QQQ push as high as $646 — where we originally forecasted based on prior overbought conditions and based on March 2024’s top at $446 ($400 mid-century top).
It’s during that move up that we want to layer in. And as we mentioned earlier, what that signals is a high probability of a double-top in the market. It’s what happens when the segment pull-back extends to 6%. It makes it really difficult for the market to make new highs.
Hey Sam, if those puts are gonna be a hedge for the long positions shouldn’t they be a 2027 expiration? To keep a 2 year time horizon?
No. So the puts are 1-year or slightly less out due to costs. We hedge 1-year out for 2year+ positions. WE then roll those hedges forward.
Otherwise you’re paying a lot up front. The cost would skyrocket if we bought puts 2-year out. So to make it cost effective, we just buy 1 -year expiring options. They’re mostly rolled way ahead of time in most cases. And they offer protection for a good 6-8 months before they need to be rolled.
Ah right, I remember reading that! Thanks Sam
Hey Sam, I remember last week you were talking about using call spreads as a strategy for playing a swing in the upside. I know we didn’t get the 700s because it was a Friday and the time over the weekend makes holding that kind of position inherently more risky, but now that the weekend is over and you think there is a high chance we run back towards ATH, do you think it would be prudent to use a small call spread to capitalize on a potential move back to overbought i.e. ~637?
So we outlined two different strategies involving the buying of calls and call-spreads but under entirely different circumstances. Let’s me quickly rehash that.
SO first, we wanted to buy September $700 call-options to pay THIS particular rebound we’re seeing right now. This rebound was inevitable as a result of the oversold conditions. We probably rationalized staying out of it when we really should have really bought in at $600. That was the place to do it because the QQQ was both oversold and had reached critical support. That was an obvious play and we should have pulled the trigger the moment we sold the puts. Both trades should have happened simultaneously.
Getting burned no the put-spread made us second guess. We shouldn’t have. Selling half the puts and buying an equal number of calls was the right call there and we’d be closing that out right now for a MASSIVE reduction in basis. Basically, a guaranteed trade winning reduction of basis would have happened.
So that was one thought.
—–
Entirely separate from that thought process was the idea that maybe we shouldn’t get long so heavily at the 8% mark in the correction. That idea arose out of your comment last week relating to correction sizes. What I discovered is that 8% corrections are actually quite rare unless one of two things is happening:
(1) the QQQ is rebounding off of a bear market low point like in 2000, 2003 or 2009. In those cases, the market seems to rally big and pul-back small. And that makes sense because it is recovering off of a massive crash in those cases 45% in 2000, 55% in 2003 and 55% in 2009;
OR
(2) the QQQ has rallied very small, generally under 20%, warranting a smaller promotional correction.
If it’s not one of those two things, then 8% correction are extremely rare. They happen, but not as often as one might think when clearing those contexts.
So the thought I had was this. Suppose we’re sitting at $255,000 at the 8% mark in Arryn. WE close out positions and now we have $180,000 in cash. Orinally, we were advocating going 50% long at the 8% mark, 25% long at around the 10% mark and then 25% long by the 11.5-12% mark. We wanted in our full core long position by the 11.5% area — the average place most big corrections fall too.
And we wanted to do this because of the opportunity risk that would ensue if the QQQ fell to only 8%, bottom and then started rallying without us. That would be catastrophic. So we were thinking, better to get long at 8% and be hedged — if the QQQ continues lower — than to be caught on the sidelines unlock.
That thinking was based on 8% corrections being a lot more common at 20% likelihood. But within this particularly context, it’s closer to like a 4% likelihood when we think about the actual exceptions wand why they occur.
So how do we deal with that strategically. If we’re not going to go 50% long at the 8% mark, how do we hedge out the risk of the QQQ bottoming at 8% and leaving us in the dust?
Simple, we buy intermediate–term call-spread that have higher inherent leverage and which will perform at a much higher level than will leaps. That way we can buy a much smaller position, sit in cash and if the QQQ rebounds, we produce the same gain as we would had we gone 50% long.
It allows us to get long without also allowing us to sit on cash. It’s hard to give an example of how to do this without doing the actual math. But let’s assume we’re at the 8% mark now. Just to see how this would work.
Suppose the QQQ has fallen to 8% and now we need to either get 50% long or take a smaller long position that produce the same return as if we were 50% long.
So let’s play it out. The June 2027 $625 calls (just out of the money) cost $85.00 per contract. That’s what we’d expect. Right now, Arryn is sitting on $183,813 in cash and $43,566 in outstanding puts for a total value of $227k. At $227,000 an 87.5% long position would be $198,625.00 which is the total amount we’d allocate to the call side of the trade. So we’d need to reduce down our puts to accolade that since we have $183,813 in cash. When buying our full position, we’d have to raise about $15k in capita. But that’s not important here.
Here’s what is. Under our “normal” strategy without considering the realities discovered on Friday, we’d set aside HALF of that $198,625 to go long the QQQ once it had fallen 8%.
SO let’ assume the 8% happened at $620 a share. We’d need to buy $100,000 of the June 2026 $625 calls at $85.00 giving us a total of around 11 contracts for a total investment of $93,500 (rounding down slightly).
The reason we’d do this , again, is to hedge out the possibility of the QQQ bottoming prematurely. We see the long list of 8% and sub-8% corrections. And so we’d go long half to prevents getting caught on the sidelines.
Now the question we need to ask is this. Is there a way for us to capitalize on teh QQQ prematurely rebounding without having to spend $93,500 to buy 11 contracts? What kind of risk must we take on to accomplish that alternative approach?
To answer this, we need to consider how they’d perform on a rally. IF the QQQ began a new 20% rally — and that’s really about as far as the QQQ would go (as we’ve seen) — given that it didn’t a large correction this time (both times this happened, it leads to much deeper sell-offs right after).
So let’s think about that. If the QQQ rose 20% from $620 a share up to $744 a share (+120 points), the QQQ June $625 calls would be worth about $165. They’d nearly double in value and produce a return of $88,000 (80-points x 11 contracts).
So how do we produce that same return if the QQQ rallies 20% while we’re on the sidelines is the question. So here’s an alternative strategy. Again, the gaol is to make $88,000 on a rally without having to spend $94,000 to get that result.
The February expiration is over 70 trading days out. This is important because if the QQQ does bottom right at 8% when we go one, it can have an above average duration rally before we even reach expiration in the new rally. At if we’re at the 8% mark, it means the correction has already lasted quite a long time. Meaning, we probably don’t have much longer in terms of duration from the 8% mark.
If we had sustained an 8% conreciotn at this point, that means the QQQ would have fallen from $675 a share to drop to $621 on an 8% drop. Meaning, we’d have come close to the century mark. So we’d probably look to buy the century mark spread ($690-$700) for the February 20 expiration. Those are trading at $1.30 right now.
Now while it might seem super far away, it’s not from the context of an 8% drop and from the context of the QQQ having already once reached $675 a share. The QQQ would largely be retracing its losses which it would do very very quickly. In fact, the first segment up would take it back to the highs with like 8-15 trading days. That means getting back to $675 within 8-15 days. That would be a 55-point move or a regular 8.8% segment. This compares to the multiple 15% segments we’ve seen as major segments.
But anyway, let’s consider how much we’d need to put up for this. At $1.30 per contract, those climb to $4.00 if the QQQ merely tests the $700 level at some point before January. At $4.00, that’s a $2.70 gain. We’d need to buy 325 contracts at $1.30 or invest $42,250 to produce the same return. That’s about a 25% investment.
Now we probably wouldn’t invest that much capital into it. Instead, what we might do is buy a smaller position to produce an off-set. So we might buy a 200 contract position at $26,000. That’s a 10% investment to produce us a $56,000 return. We’d produce about half the return on only 1/4th the investment capital. At $26,000 invested, we can keep $70,000 on the sidelines for a deeper correction.
What’s more, and this is key, even if the QQQ goes lower — as we’d expect — the February $690-$700 spread are going to be good. We’d be able to make money on them as the QQQ recovers from its eventual bottom. For example, suppose the QQQ falls for 2 more weeks, bottoms, we get super long and we rally, we’d likely be able to sell the Feb’s at a profit on the eventual inevitable rally. Especial if the QQQ goes for 10%+ as we’d expect. We get a bigger segmented rally and a more explosive move up in that case.
—–
Now this is very crude math and we’d consider a bunch of different strategies. Going out to March maybe or moving the strikes up. Moving our rally parameters down a bit. Since the QQQ just rallied 60%, if it only sustains an 8% correction, it’s likely to see a very contained rally as we saw between March 2024 and July 2024.
Anyway, this is all a hypothetical where the QQQ had fallen 8% and we’re weighting the options being buying a 50% position or buying a smaller 10% position with the goal of producing similar returns.
One last point here…
If those calls were held to expiration, at 320 contracts, they’d be worth $320,000. Even them producing just another $1.00 for a $3.70 return, we’d end up with gains of $118,400. but to get there, we’d need to see the QQQ at $20-$30 in the money. Well guess what our original thesis called for the QQQ rallying to $720-$730 (20% rally off of an 8% correction). At $720-$730, our calls would go up to $4.80-$5.50 a contract producing a $3.70 to $4.50 gain.
I hope the above makes sense.
This makes total sense, thank you! I like the idea of still being conservative with the spreads since they also have a chance of producing more than expected. Also, there is a smaller allocation size (as you’ve discussed at length with more near term exp options). I appreciate the outline and the crude math.
Just above Florians’ comment and below the ”previous” button (to see the previous daily briefing), it says: 4 thoughts on Oversold Rebound Likely to Continue through Early this Week Up to Mid-Line or Overbought Conditions”. Am I missing part of the daily briefing?
It’s weird phrasing, but I believe that just represents the number of comments posted so far. “Thought” means “Comment” in this case. Not sure why the font is so big though…doesn’t seem important enough to warrant the font size.
Ahh that would explain why the number keeps going up, thanks!
Yeah that’s just default WordPress’s way of saying “comments.” It means subscribers have published 11 different comments or thoughts on the article.
Seems like scenario 2 is most likely at this point.
Isn’t this really similar to what we saw between late December of 2024-March of 2025?
Is so, we should expect a long consolidation before the correction actually begins.
Not necessarily. We could easily see a retest that does’t take months like that. Also, the swings were much much larger back then. We saw a near 8% drop leading into a 9% rebound leading into another 7-8% drop. There were multiple big swings up and down back then. So we’re not quite there. It could happen — under scenario 3 — but I think it’s less likely.
I know you’re not giving financial advice, but it sounds like your model portfolio is positioned for a pullback. I’m also mostly long tech (QQQ, NVDA, etc.) and sitting on some cash, so I’m interested in how you’re thinking about timing. From what you’re saying, it seems you expect a broader correction in the next few months and would hold off on adding here. That makes sense if you’re confident about lower levels ahead.
So the reason we expect a correction in the next few months is because the QQQ has rallied longer than in any previous rally of this kind going back to its inception in the 1990’s. We’ve never seen teh QQQ rally longer than 114-days when it produces daily returns of .40% or greater (very very common return rate).
This rally stands at 144 days. That’s 30-days longer than any previous rally like it. Even if it manages to rally for the rest of November and December, there’s very very bearish seasonality in January . We’ve sen a repeated pattern of the QQQ peaking in January for a correction just as we star the new year. Just like last year. And this is particularly true when the QQQ has had a strong 2nd half of the year.
If time does end it, that will. And really it will be both of those things together. That’s if the QQQ doesn’t already top here and sustain a correction in NOv-Dec.
Are you expecting further upside? QQQ is now marginally down from the open. Are you expecting a gap fill and then more rally? I’m just confused as to why no puts were added while it was over 620.
Because we sort of surpassed both the mid-line and the $618 level at the open which suggests further upside. The QQQ is going to top on a big gap like that.
Big gap-ups on a rebound typically result in one of three outcomes. The QQQ either explodes higher and just continues further up. You get a gap and run in the mornin. It’s why you dox’t want to short a gap-up right at the open.
Second, the pulls back very slightly like we’re seeing now. 1-2 hourly bars down and then it rallied for the rest of the day.
Third, the QQQ could pull-back to fill the gap this morning, but then that usually leads into a stronger push up and a premature bottom.
NO matter how you slice today’s session, it’s not good for the correction scenario. Correction scenario would be best set-up if the QQQ only gapped up slightly, rallied during the session, peaked as it went past the mid-line and below the 50% retracment line and then started to retreat.
A gap-up above the mid-line and above the 50% retracement lines means the QQQ wants to retest. It doesn’t mean it has to go to the highs, but I no longer think the move from $637 down to $599 represents the start of a correction. If we start to repeat, it will likely mean a bottom with a higher low or an incremental new low.
We’d just have a 2-legged segment and set-up to rally. We’d go long on the retreat back to $600 for a more serious rebound.
But that’s only if it even goes down that path.
The most likely scenario right now is I think the QQQ regains its footing and makes a push to the $623 area by the end of today. We want to buy on the upswing on the cheaper end of the range.
Thanks, Sam. I appreciate your experience in general market movement in situations like these. You had mentioned buying them back around $620, but I understand that the situation is always changing based on the action. I’d just hate to go into the correction without those puts in place. If there’s a time I struggle with patience, it’s when something like this happens, where we’re in a previously mentioned target range, but not pulling the trigger. As always, thanks for your thoughtful response.
Given that the market seems to want to retest and doesn’t seem too concerned with filling the gap right now, a double top or head and shoulders that you mentioned previously is still a very reasonable outcome, correct? I’m assuming this means that we’re not in the throes of a correction, but it could be a broader set up for a correction, and possibly a considerably larger correction?
So we could be in a correction, it’s just less likely now that the QQQ has retraced more than half of the losses. We went from $637 down to $599 and up to $622. So it has retraced most f the move down now. Usually in corrections, you get a rebound but the rebound does’t typically go any further than half way up.
But sometimes it doesn’t. The market does off-trend things all the time. We probably do want to buy very soon to be honest. If we get up to $623-$624, we probably want to buy at that point. Short of the gap.
Then we’ll add progressively as the QQQ rises. Just as we outlined. If we can buy at $14.20, we’d be happy. So we may very well do that. That’s a $4.00 reduction in basis!
Hi Sam – I am seeing having mobile app. issues. I can’t see the full briefing despite being logged in. At the top of the menu bar, it does says how the JWT tokens are not configure properly and to contact admin. I am not able to view any of the other tabs properly either, help please? Thanks!
HI. So we made a few posts on this. We’re undergoing some maintenance issues right now and the app isn’t going to work until we’re able to resolve some issues caused by our hosting provide. I think ultimately we’re going to migrate servers and so it might be off-line for about a week.
For now, it’s probably best to login to the site directly through the mobile or desktop version of the website.
Sorry Sam, my fault. jumped straight to the comments to flag it in case you didn’t know. Reading now, will be patient. Thanks for your efforts!
No worries. It’s hard to see the update if you’re trying to get information through the app. I’ve gotten a lot of e-mails the same way. trying to figure out how to make a clear announcement thought he app itself. so it’s flagged. there’s no way to know it’s offline unless one logs directly into the desktop or mobile web version of the site.
Hi Sam,
Sounds like you’re really pushing towards entering the correction with the $550 puts; however you’ve mentioned purchasing back the $500s we sold last week. Is there a reason why you wouldn’t want to fully switch to the $550s from now on after having made a profit on the $500s we traded out. Is there any merit to applying the cost basis reduction to $550s and only purchasing them on this rebound? So we would exclusively purchase the $550s (instead of purchasing back the 500s we sold) and then trade out of the remaining $500s on the pullback / correction and only hold the $550s (both core hedge and trading contracts) into the correction?
Thanks!
Increase costs and leverage. We’ll definitely add the $550’s but as the QQQ moves higher up.
Hi Sam,
Does overbought have same meaning as oversold in your latest update? For example, are we also looking for sustained RSI on the hourly or deeply overbought conditions?
It’s similar. We discussed it last time the QQQ was overbought. What we showed is that the QQQ generally will top out around 8-points higher than where it reaches deeply overbought.
SO step 1: reach deeply overbought, mark the price.
Step 2: Add +8 to that price. That’s where the QQQ will generally top out at the end of a segment.
Hi Sam, Could an event like a disappointing NVIDIA quarterly earnings report on November 19th, coupled with a Deepseek-type story, trigger a sharp drop that started last week?
We already saw this in February 2025, and panic ensued. Looking forward to your reply, Karl
It’s an odd question. OF course anything COULD happen. But that’s a lot of assumption to depend on. That’s not what we do. Nvidia has debit right now. It owes the market a big sell-off. A big sell-off is going to happen and now that Nvidia is near $200, it is very likely to happen from a peak around this zone.
Somewhere around this area is where Nvidia will ultimately top.
IN terms of duration, we’re about 30 days beyond the normal outside limit. That tells you we’re not very far from a duration standpoint. The market looks like it’s form a complex top right now.
SO my guess is sometime between now and January at the latest.
From our perspective, we’re just waiting too get long and so we can wait patiently. Especially as Nvidia isn’t going to stray far from where it is right now. In the next correction, it likely still reaches around $150 as we first outlined. That’s probably where it goes.
25% for a fix seems like the minimum? Shouldn’t it be more like 30-35%? Why is NVIDIA in financial difficulty?