Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
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Hi Sam, thanks for the analysis as always.
Regarding the rule thumb of 5-8 points of upside after reaching 80+ RSI, does the same apply to deeply oversold at 20 RSI? i.e. further drop of 5-8 points as well or is it more unpredictable on the downside. Thanks!
No. Not necessarily. You get a little more precision on the downside in most cases. There’s no guarantee we go to 20-RSI. The point is that there’s plenty of room to the downside before we’re deeply oversold. We’re only mildly oversold at the moment.
Do you think we will see 150 on NVDA this or next week? Will that be considered bottom. Also wondering about your thoughts on AAPL or GOOG which have not corrected much.
Nvidia really depends how it performs after earnings and how that aligns with where the market is trading. It’s a balance between those two things. Apple & Google will both eventually retrace. The sense I get is this going to take some time. It’s going to be al longer corrective period. That’s the sense I get right now based on how the market is currently trading.
If this stretch turns out to be a smaller 8-10% correction, it’s unlikely to be THE correction and we are likely to see another larger sell off in maybe Jan 2026?
Very likely. It’s either now or after a retest. I don’t think it will be just an 8% isolated correction. It’s either going well beyond 10% now or we rebound, retest the highs and do it later.
April low was a ~20% correction. A second 20% correction in the same year has to be rare, isn’t it?
It is. The last time we saw something like that was in 2018-2019. We had some big corrections during that period of time. So the only way we get up to that 20% correction level is we’d need to see a very long complex top just like we saw back in January. The market isnt’ going to fall 20% without a consolation top. That’s what we’ve largely seen historically with a small handful of exceptions.
with QQQ threatening to breach 600, I’d say we are past correction and have begun the next segment (or rally).
Soothing talk about rollback of some tariffs has juiced up markets for the next run
Yes
Nah man bears held the line at 600
So during this entire period we always must consider the possibility the QQQ will go through the same precise process it went through last January. Top > 7-8% pull-back > retest > crash. That’s one distinct possibility.
The other is a straight forward correction.
Because of the issues I was desperately sent a message to deiselcock. 🙂 It was impossible to send a message. So my iPhone app still asks me to log in order to open a brief, even though I’m already in. Do you know how I can get back to my old recognition log in? Not a priority.
I’m not 100% sure that I follow. Send me an e-mail and detail whatever issues your’e having. admin@Sam Weiss.com.
What are the current target QQQ and NVDA prices to rebuy back into long positions? 580/150?
So closer to $585 for the QQQ. We probably won’t buy Nvidia back unless it sustains a serious correction. Otherwise, there’s just too much risk in Nvidia.
Once it sustains a serious correction, it will open up a very serious opportunity to make money.
So yeah, we’d need to see Nvidia down near $150.
So far, nothing about this correction is opportunistic. Nothing screams, wow this is all so cheap.
Hey Sam,
Thank you as always for the analysis today, very insightful considering we are in some uncertain zones and we are going to need the granularity of the historical data to plan our entries.
I have a question regarding correction legs. I know you’ve discussed them at length last correction, but I thought it would be good to bring them up again. Would you say that we are on the “second leg” of the correction right now?
Leg 1: 637 – 599 (6%)
Leg 2: 625 – 591 (5.35%)
Would you say this is accurate? Or do you generally wait for more of the correction to unfold before you start analyzing legs?
Thanks!
(I just realized I asked this question before refreshing the page and you had just added the leg analysis)
What’s strange is that Bitcoin and MicroStrategy are moving in the opposite direction to this decline today… Rotation underway?
Hi Sam,
Sounds like you’re planning on purchasing slightly OTM leaps this time around. Is there a reason for this? I was under the impression we target slightly ITM for our leap strike price.
Thanks!
Cost and liquidity. The round strikes like $500, $600, $700 are going to have inherently more demand which makes for a shorter bid/ask spreads. It’s partly why we bought the $400’s back in April.
Interesting reversal this morning. We went upover the 50% retracement, then back to negative. This market really have a tendency to overshoot.