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Technically it made new highs on Monday, but it was only by like 10-20 cents, which is pretty negligible for the 180s
Anyways, you’ve said in the past that NVDA’s smallest correction in recent memory was 22% (corresponding to an 8% QQQ correction). That would put it at 143.95 which fits your prediction of the low 140s, but do you expect that to go lower if NVDA continues to consolidate?
Yep, I brought this up recently and Sam’s thoughts were that an “ATH” doesn’t count unless it’s a substantial percentage, breakout-type ATH etc.
So an all-time high isn’t really meaningful if a stock only goes up one penny beyond it’s all-time high. What does that really show?
For example, let’s say Nvidia goes up to 185 before falling to 170 rallies back to 184 fall back to 168 rallies back to $185.01 before falling back to 175
This is all still part of the same circumstances where it hasn’t really broken out.
From the perspective of a breakout, it needs to be substantial otherwise it’s meaningless.
From the perspective of counting, how long a rally lasts then sure yeah that’s important
Like if we want to say how long does this Nvidia rally last it lasts as long as the highest print
Whatever day, Nvidia reaches its highest absolute print is how long the Nvidia rally lasted
However, long it takes for an Nvidia to fall to its lowest possible print is the amount of time it took for an Nvidia to correct
So in that sense, it’s significant, but in the sense of pushing to new highs and breaking out without a substantial move above previous highs, it’s meaningless.
Seems like we should transition out of those Oct. 17 spreads if we get a 2nd leg lower? What are your thoughts Sam? Could all get really tight if this screws around some more and retests and consolidates and what not..
Are we even going to address the Sep 30 spread? No value and not much time so could see just ignoring.
I can only speak for myself, but I don’t know if it would make sense to close them out at this point as the amount you’d pay on fees might be more than the actual value you’d get back from selling it.
Hi Sam,
Would love to hear your technical analysis breakdown of this statement
When you say “It is setting up that way right now” what are you looking at to come to this conclusion? What is the “setup” in question here? Is it because the QQQ had a little bit of volatile day yesterday? The fact that the QQQ spent yesterday went back and forth in price range would indicate to me that it wants to rebound back up. Just trying to broaden my technical analysis intuition here 🙂
Thanks!
Hi Sam,
What chart are you looking at with this statement?
I’m not seeing two legs on the pullback after the 1st segment of the rally? I only see a single small pullback. Could you show me on the chart what you’re looking at?
Thanks!
Hey Sam, I have a question about puts in general. When is it usually the best time to purchase them as an insurance against catastrophic losses in the more “stable” portfolios (like Tyrell)? If I don’t have any put positions at the moment, when would be the best time to start thinking about adding the measure?
gap up rollover
We need to discuss revision to the strategy of these short term trades. It’s pretty widely accepted that within 30 calendar days of exp you should exit if the opportunity presents itself.
We have missed the mark more than once now with these trades where we had exits 30 days ago that would’ve been profitable. Of course there will always be the case, where the trade pays big near exp, however, we have seen many trades over the past few months where we have good exits and have completely missed the mark. Not great exits, but making money is better than losing money and gives you another shot to swing again down the road.
That said we;ve also missed the mark exiting early like we did in the spring a few times, but I think in general we should have a discussion about the exit plan. Clearly exiting the NVDA puts, the nearest spread on the sharp pullback in August would’ve been wise and offered the opportunity to re enter. In the past we’ve missed opportunity to re enter, but that was also done prematurely, IMO. I think we need to consider DTE and consider exiting at breakeven (if suffered a drawdown), or slight profit, then re assess and re enter if the opportunity presents.
The dip is coming, and even a broke clock is right twice a day.
Not suggesting following blindly, just suggesting we discuss the strategy