Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
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Hi Sam, for the november 560-550 put spread are we waiting overbought conditions (hourly) ?
Hello Sam
When you say :”From our perspective, even if the rally takes a long time to top, the market isn’t really going anywhere. From July to today, it is up around 5% overall. Remember, it’s now up around 55% total. That means MOST (90%) of the gains were established during the first 80-days of the rally and the last 46-days have added very little in terms of returns. This is true for Nvidia as well. Nvidia ended July having reached $183.29 a share, and it’s trading at $186.57 today. That’s basically nowhere in 2-months.”
You’re forgetting the quantum, nuclear, electrification, mining, and uranium stocks that continue to soar, and that’s what worries me.
Today, an announcement from OpenAI and AMD, and boom, AMD’s up 30%. Yesterday, it was Oracle…
Best
Karl
Sam, and the NVDA puts?
It sounds like there were only breakouts on retest of the century mark.
Since qqq pulled back from 603 to 590s then up again now, this qualifies as a retest with potential to breakout?
I know you previously mentioned, historically there has not beeen a second long consolidation in a high volatility rally.
Does that means we won’t have to consolidate here -assuming historical precedence- and it will either breakout or breakdown?
Which one is more likely currently?
thanks.
We have definitely missed opportunities to exit stuff in the past. Communicating exit/roll strategy now would probably be a good idea.
Hey Sam,
I think the question “How do we know if any sell-off is the beginning of the correction?” has been asked a few times, and if I remember correctly, you said the initial sell-off that starts a correction would be unmistakably violent — something like a >2% drop in the QQQ in a single session.
If we know how to recognize a correction-inducing sell-off, and we also know that the current rally is in its last throes while expecting a larger than average correction, wouldn’t a valid strategy for the put-spread trades have been to wait for the initial sell-off and confirmation of the correction before putting on the trades?
Of course, we would miss out on the first day’s drop and pay a bit extra due to the volatility spike, but that doesn’t sound like a bad deal if, at that point, we have high confidence of further downside (e.g., missing out on the first -2%, but still expecting -8% in total, or more on average).
Am I missing something / is there a flaw in this line of thinking?
Thank you !
This time is different…
There’s no way this time isn’t different
finally some ???????? relief underway?
Nothing can stop the market! QQQ setting up for another breakout to $615! LETS GO
It feels like the market has decoupled from reality. No matter the news, shutdown, bad economic numbers and so on, the market just goes on like a train. 2 weeks ago I half jokingly said it will probably go on another month, looks like it’s actually gonna be that way… freaking annoying
Actually I don’t even wanna know what happens when the end of the shutdown gets announced.., probably goes through the roof
QQQ 603 nlod; bearish engulfing candle in play
QQQ nlod; bearish engulfing candle still in play $604 closing level to watch
QQQ close nlod; bearish engulfing candle validated; watch for follow-through