Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
To streamline our daily blogs and conserve space, we’ve organized key resources into a convenient, collapsible dropdown menu below. A sort of Quick Reference Handbook if you will -- as our friends in aviation might call it. By clicking the menu below, you’ll have qu...
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Would you consider hedging via something like UVIX (as opposed to QQQ puts) so that at the risk of a reduced return you reduce the option decay cost even though UVIX also has some decay? thanks
So it’s been consolidating for 4 months, somehow I have no faith that this will end just because previous rallies ended at 150 days.., especially with the most bullish season of the year coming up
We are just running new segments at this point maybe Smiley was right?
Sam said this wasn;t a consolidation, now he’s saying it is…
Hey Sam, has there been a case like this where the market peaked, then consolidated and retested the highs for a couple of weeks without making new highs and then sold off?
Following, though I’m hoping fifth time is the charm ????
Looks like QQQ made a new ATH in today’s (10/24) pre-market. At this point, not sure if we can classify this as a high volatility rally anymore. Probably need to introduce a new category of high volatility into melt-up rally with no precedence of duration.
614.88 new ATH for QQQ in premarket
Gap up new ATH!
“Time will tell”
QQQ $617
74 RSI on the hourly for QQQ
No it’s not, it’s 67 not even over bought yet
Hey Sam, great chart takes and information, but Im concerned staying short feels like missing the AI boom and crypto surges. End of year rallies usually dominate. Do you feel we are in for a major correction to occur before year end?
QQQ 616.50 gap up, nhod
VIX 16.5, nlod
Went from being “not a consolidation” to now it is apparently!
We do have the end of month now and today being a Friday, could see explosive reversal on Monday and crash, these things are random and catch you off guard
Rally added 5% since pullback that “doomed” the rally
I’ve made this comment 3 or 4 times already here. I didn’t understand how the QQQ couldn’t keep making new all time highs with the environment we’re in. More rate cuts coming, every dip bought up right away, Trump using social media to move the market and so much new money coming in. I was hesitant shorting the market which I never do. I started late here so I don’t have gains that people do. I wish I held onto Nvidia and now I’m second guessing buying all those September puts. I don’t anything in the market changing anytime soon. More all time highs on the way
The rally has silenced Sam
I don’t think Sam’s being any more silent than he normally is at this time of day. I’m assuming he has other activities outside of this blog
Dude seriously, maybe tone it down just a little? You don’t have to subscribe here, Im as frustrated as you are but what’s the point of these comments?
Hey, I feel like Sam has adressed this a couple times in the last few weeks. Do you really think the market can go up for another year without a correction after it’s already had an outlier rally so far? It’s never happened!
If it feels like GG does that mean we’re at the top? ????
Genuinely curious where the buying pressure is coming from, if the institutions are on the sidelines expecting a correction is this all retail pressure?
Seriously I wonder the same thing, who is buying this? I think i’ll give it a try next dip.
ill buy and that should start the correction
We will be at 610 and then 603 and then 596 soon on QQQ, adding to long term puts here for next year. I have 10/29 for a move, hopefully its not an upside move to 630 lol
It could very well be. I’m working on an update right now now. But as we mentioned, a breakout above $613 paves a path to $633 a share. The QQQ will need to get through $620 first which is a very big line of resistance. but if it gets through $620, the next logical place for hte QQQ to rally is $633.
Then we end up with another heavy area of resistance in the $630’s. And often we get a lot of rallies that end there. If it gets thorugh the $630’s it’s almost always an open path to $650-$660.
That’s how rallies generally unfold. Every century mark plays out hte same way.
$600-$615 is the first area of resistance and if the market can get through that — often it doesn’t — then the next place to get through is $620. If it pushes past, the last line is $630-$633. From there, it’s an open path to $660 (mid-century mark).
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I think what’s going to happen is the QQQ is going to test $620 in the coming days — though it’s nearing overbought — and if it has the energy to get past it, it will very likely see another top at $630 a share. That’s where we’ll see another attempt to take the QQQ down. At $630 it pulls back to $600 a share (4.7% pull-back). From there, it either finds support and rallies back or it finally undergoes a correction.
Hence why we’re adding at $630-$633 range. We bought at $600, $613 and will wait until $633. If it never gets there, that’s fine with us. we’re good holding 25 contracts. If it does get there, then we get a very likely strong entry.
yes I do think we get opportunities to add at those levels which will correlate well with 6900 Spx. however Wednesday next week is a lot of big players earnings and if we get a slightly flawless report from any of them I do see a failed breakout situation.
Expecting a correction to happen is a false hope. I hope it doesn’t take you guys another 3-4 months to finally realize that we are in a bubble already. We are definitely due for a correction, but that doesn’t mean we will get one this year. Again, time will tell.
QQQ nhod